Governor Tom Corbett is Dead Man Walking: Why?

Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett

He is dead man walking. – Tim Malloy, assistant director of
Quinnipiac polls, about Tom Corbett's reelection chances in 2014.

Texas Governor Rick Perry argued that the states are the laboratory for
democracy, and the testing ground for policy reforms (or status quo
policies).

Connecticut Governor Dannel Malloy signed off on gun registration, and
Connecticut residents refused to comply. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo
established similar laws, and gun owners burned the forms in an act of
civil disobedience.

Republican governors pushed innovative, risky policy shifts, as well, with better results. Louisiana's Bobby Jindal has received positive press for school choice and tax cuts. Governors Walker and Snyder redefined labor relations within their states, with better chance of reelection.

Other governors initiated rapid changes, and are struggling for reelection.

Among the 2014 gubernatorial contests, one Republican governor
is not just facing an uphill battle, but has been deemed "dead
man walking":

Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett.

What happened to this man, and during his first term in office, that he was polling double-digits behind before the 2014 campaign entered its first lap?

We can point to personal and sensational scandals have hurt Corbett's image.

Nittany Lion Coach Joe Paterno
(suspected of cover-up
of Sandusky sex abuse)

The Penn State/Sandusky child molestation scandal not only scarred the
college, and college football, but also former Attorney General
Tom Corbett for his handling of the case. Despite
reports which exonerated the governor from political maneuvering in the
case, reports concluded that he did not investigate the frequent claims of sex
abuse effectively.

A more recent scandal forced Corbett to defend his record as Attorney
General again. Current and former staffers in the Pennsylvania AG's offices distributed
emails with pornographic images. Even judges may be connected with these
scandals. Corbett has called for three people connected with the salacious
materials to step down, yet one aide has refused to resign, claiming that he is
wrongly implicated.

These are sensational, headline grabbing issues, but they focus on his
prior administration as attorney general. For an incumbent governor to poll
twenty points behind his challenger, and for more than six months, there is
much more to why Corbett has become a dead man walking.

Corbett rode the 2010 Tea Party wave, and received a GOP majority
legislature to boot. He had the same supposedly like-minded colleagues in
the Harrisburg statehouse after the 2012 elections, even though Republicans
across the country did not fare as well. Creative gerrymandering will ensure
safe seats for Republicans for years to come.

Have these safe seats made Republicans soft on hard-core conservative
policies? Did they kill Corbett's chances of reelection this year?

Corbett did cut spending
substantially. . .educational funding, and Pennsylvanians are upset
about it. Isaiah Thompson fact-checked and commented on Corbett's education
funding:

Those figures alone suggest
that Corbett at the most flat-lined education funding; but costs rise due to
inflation and and flat-lined spending over four years is in fact a
decrease in spending over cost.

and then

A study by the Education Law Center, meanwhile, found the most drastic
examples of this by comparing the cost cuts to these programs on a per-pupil
basis. Where some districts saw per-classroom cuts of less than $2,500, others
saw tens of thousands of dollars cut on a per-classroom basis. Philadelphia was
among those districts.

Germantown High South, South Philadelphia

Another
liberal blog writes:

A new analysis by the Public Interest Law Center of Philadelphia
shows that lower income students and minority races are affected in
significantly greater amounts compared to other students by the Corbett
Administration cuts. In 2011 Governor Tom Corbett cut
$1 billion in public school funding. As a result of these cuts 70 percent
of school districts have increased class sizes, 44 percent slashed
extracurricular activities and 35 percent eliminated tutoring programs.

So, the growing perception
suggests that Corbett cut inner-city and minority schools more than other
districts. Ouch!

En masses outrage erupted at a
college commencement when Corbett
was the guest speaker. In addition to personal anecdotes from attending
graduates who turned their chairs around in protest, the report repeated the
staggering cuts Corbett enacted:

In his first year in office, Governor Corbett sought a 50% decrease in
education funding, followed by a request for a 30% reduction the next year.
Meanwhile, tuition has gone up for Millersville students in every year of the
governor’s term.

Perception is crucial to a candidate's election (or reelection) chances. Granted, schools do not need more
money, but better administration. Cuts alone, however, do not demonstrate any
caring from leadership. California Governor Jerry Brown was smart enough to
increase funding to poor and minority school districts, even though his new
funding formula hurt middle and upper class communities. Should Corbett have
done the same thing? Of course not. School choice, voucher programs, or scholarships
would have impacted the hearts and minds of voters. Even Presidential candidate
Mitt Romney reached out to poor and inner-city communities by visiting charter
schools. What did Corbett do? Not enough.

Proposals which are pro-student and pro-fiscal restraint (like Michigan Gov.
Synder's right-to-work reforms) would win over voters and policy wonks.

Stated simply, Corbett's education cuts are cutting off his reelection
chances.

How else has Corbett failed to earn a second term in the Keystone
state?

The state capital, Harrisburg, filed for bankruptcy 2011. Didn’t hear about it?
Probably because Detroit has gotten all the negative press, the largest
municipal bankruptcy in American History. Plus the fact that Detroit’s
illustrious (and nefarious) history commends more attention from the immediate
press and a readership obsessed with immediacy.

Whether he is directly responsible or not, nothing invites reproach for a governor worse than the state capital
going bankrupt.

Why did Harrisburg go bust, anyway? Debt
from the city’s replacement and improvement of its trash-to-energy incinerator
has burned municipal coffers.

Another
article compared Detroit and Harrisburg:

Harrisburg, PA

Detroit's troubles have been decades
in the making and the city is chronically distressed as a result of population
loss and loss of industry, thus reducing the tax base. Harrisburg's problems
can be pinned primarily on a bad deal, although there are some structural
problems that will have to be addressed in order for the city to truly be
viable.

Detroit is shouldering a multi-billion dollar debt, while Harrisburg is
struggling under three hundred million plus. Both cities are struggling with
pension liabilities and union dominance, too. Harrisburg has a fraction of Detroit's population, and tax base.

On a wider scale, pension problem has plagued Corbett’s political chances, too. Pension
reforms did not yield the predicted savings, and they have done nothing to shore up the lingering liabilities burdening the state..

Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett

Despite
a friendly legislature, Corbett failed to privatize state-owned liquor
stores, failed to enact paycheck protection, as Wisconsin Governor Walker had done in
2011. According to a National Review piece dissecting the Corbett’s Dead on
Arrival reelection, unions have bought both sides of the aisle in Harrisburg.
Instead of bold reforms, Corbett went along to get along.

Corbett even suggested raising taxes! He
discussed raising revenues off of oil exploration:

Yesterday
Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett proposed lifting the cap on the state’s oil company franchise tax, the
tax applied to gasoline sold at the wholesale level, boasting that it will
siphon an additional $5 billion from the private economy over the next five
years.

Corbett the Republican governor did not
govern as a Republican at all. The added allegations of incompetence and malfeasance during his tenure as Attorney General, plus the unappealing cuts to education ruined his chances.

And there is nothing that is going to resurrect his campaign or his reelection chances in the next month.