The year 2013 has not even grazed the last month, even
though Christmas ornaments clutter the store shelves, yet Republicans are
already handicapping the 2016 Presidential election.
though Christmas ornaments clutter the store shelves, yet Republicans are
already handicapping the 2016 Presidential election.
Fresh off a 60% win in two-to-one Democratic New Jersey,
Chris Christie has waffled on gay marriage (he opposes it, and he would oppose
his kids’ marrying if they acknowledged a homosexual bent). He has strayed away
from supporting a pathway to citizenship for the eleven million (and definitely
more) illegal immigrants in the United States. Still basking in his famous
affronts to disgruntled teachers (“Then you know what, you don’t have to do it!”),
Christie wasted his time hammering his fellow Republicans than holding
President Obama accountable.
Chris Christie has waffled on gay marriage (he opposes it, and he would oppose
his kids’ marrying if they acknowledged a homosexual bent). He has strayed away
from supporting a pathway to citizenship for the eleven million (and definitely
more) illegal immigrants in the United States. Still basking in his famous
affronts to disgruntled teachers (“Then you know what, you don’t have to do it!”),
Christie wasted his time hammering his fellow Republicans than holding
President Obama accountable.
Despite the loss of love between conservatives, grass-roots
operations, and even notable media pundits (including the unimpressed Sean
Hannity, who warned Christie about gun control), Washington Post columnist
Charles Krauthammer has declared the New Jersey heavyweight the unofficial
front-runner for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2016.
operations, and even notable media pundits (including the unimpressed Sean
Hannity, who warned Christie about gun control), Washington Post columnist
Charles Krauthammer has declared the New Jersey heavyweight the unofficial
front-runner for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2016.
In the Democratic corner, Hillary Clinton, first wife, US
Senator, 2008 Presidential nominee, Secretary of State, is prepping for a 2016
run, according to all unofficial accounts. Stumping for Virginia governor-elect
Terry McAuliffe, she faulted the failure of leadership in the White House, and
House Speaker Newt Gingrich sadly admitted that the GOP following the 2012
disappointments is not ready for Hillary.
Senator, 2008 Presidential nominee, Secretary of State, is prepping for a 2016
run, according to all unofficial accounts. Stumping for Virginia governor-elect
Terry McAuliffe, she faulted the failure of leadership in the White House, and
House Speaker Newt Gingrich sadly admitted that the GOP following the 2012
disappointments is not ready for Hillary.
All of this presidential prognosticating ignores outlying
factors, like sudden personal errors, circumstantial crises, and the eternity
of political patience which can turn the most obvious of front-runners into a
back-bencher without any analysis.
factors, like sudden personal errors, circumstantial crises, and the eternity
of political patience which can turn the most obvious of front-runners into a
back-bencher without any analysis.
The Republican Party would do well to remember former
governor and US Senator of Virginia George Allen. Raised in California (in the
South Bay region of Los Angeles, no less), his commanding political resume
positioned him as early as 2005 for a possible Presidential run, per Fox News Sunday Anchor Tony Snow. In a straw poll
match-up against other possible contenders, including Jeb Bush and US Senate
Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee, Allen was looking like a frontrunner
which would never aground for election 2008.
governor and US Senator of Virginia George Allen. Raised in California (in the
South Bay region of Los Angeles, no less), his commanding political resume
positioned him as early as 2005 for a possible Presidential run, per Fox News Sunday Anchor Tony Snow. In a straw poll
match-up against other possible contenders, including Jeb Bush and US Senate
Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee, Allen was looking like a frontrunner
which would never aground for election 2008.
Of course, Republican President George W. Bush’
compassionate conservative would tarnish the fiscal rhetoric of the Republican
Party platform (along with the unrelenting corruption of lobbyist Jack Abramoff
and Mark Foley’s perverse follies with Congressional pages), and Allen’s star
would fall during his almost near-certain reelection campaign for US Senate in
2006.
compassionate conservative would tarnish the fiscal rhetoric of the Republican
Party platform (along with the unrelenting corruption of lobbyist Jack Abramoff
and Mark Foley’s perverse follies with Congressional pages), and Allen’s star
would fall during his almost near-certain reelection campaign for US Senate in
2006.
The rise of on site, up-front social media took Allen
off-guard during bid against former Undersecretary of the Navy Jim Webb, a
populist willing to play center to take back the Commonwealth for the
Democratic Party. The erstwhile presidential contender’s off-color remark “Macaca”
to a stalking campaign detractor damaged his campaign up to his one-point loss
against Webb.
off-guard during bid against former Undersecretary of the Navy Jim Webb, a
populist willing to play center to take back the Commonwealth for the
Democratic Party. The erstwhile presidential contender’s off-color remark “Macaca”
to a stalking campaign detractor damaged his campaign up to his one-point loss
against Webb.
Refusing to apologize to the end, Allen’s presidential
aspirations expired, along with the Republican Party’s Congressional majorities
that year. Was there a chance for a comeback? Following his 2012 fight against former
DNC Chairman Tim Kaine to regain his seat, he lost by five points. Allen the once-predetermined
Presidential front-runner has no discernible political future.
aspirations expired, along with the Republican Party’s Congressional majorities
that year. Was there a chance for a comeback? Following his 2012 fight against former
DNC Chairman Tim Kaine to regain his seat, he lost by five points. Allen the once-predetermined
Presidential front-runner has no discernible political future.
Before claiming Christie as their Christ-figure, Republicans
should reflect on Allen’s fate.
should reflect on Allen’s fate.
Of course, the Democratic Party has its own record of
thwarted Presidential posturing. No better example than the same candidate whom
Democratic leaders, in Washington and throughout the country, are lining up
behind for 2016: Hillary Clinton.
thwarted Presidential posturing. No better example than the same candidate whom
Democratic leaders, in Washington and throughout the country, are lining up
behind for 2016: Hillary Clinton.
After Bush’s win in 2004, liberals were hoping for Hillary. In
the background, Illinois Senator-elect Barack Obama was ranked 99th,
with little history other than an anti-war speech in 2002 coupled with “present”
votes in the state legislature.
the background, Illinois Senator-elect Barack Obama was ranked 99th,
with little history other than an anti-war speech in 2002 coupled with “present”
votes in the state legislature.
Husband Bill Clinton defined the Democratic Party, even though
his Presidency of small gains devolved into a farce in the last two years.
Extremely popular, Bill was propping up Hillary for 2008, and Washington Post
columnist Krauthammer feared another four years of Clinton in Washington.
his Presidency of small gains devolved into a farce in the last two years.
Extremely popular, Bill was propping up Hillary for 2008, and Washington Post
columnist Krauthammer feared another four years of Clinton in Washington.
To Hillary’s left in 2008, Obama steadily outpaced the “Establishment
Favorite”, precisely because of her record in the US Senate, specifically her
support for the war in Iraq. Too moderate to primary voters, and unserious to independents,
the Clinton candidacy caved in 2008. Campaign operatives (including Ragin’
Cajun James Carville) could not fathom Hillary’s displacement by a left-leaning
neophyte. Identity politics and obsessions with equality marred the delegate
count into the early summer months of 2008, but Hillary’s “seventeen million
cracks in the glass ceiling” could not break through the rising Obama-rama.
Besides, media empress Oprah Winfrey shrewdly (and self-righteously) promoted
the black candidate over female office-seeker, along with the widening youth
vote looking to vote for someone like them.
Favorite”, precisely because of her record in the US Senate, specifically her
support for the war in Iraq. Too moderate to primary voters, and unserious to independents,
the Clinton candidacy caved in 2008. Campaign operatives (including Ragin’
Cajun James Carville) could not fathom Hillary’s displacement by a left-leaning
neophyte. Identity politics and obsessions with equality marred the delegate
count into the early summer months of 2008, but Hillary’s “seventeen million
cracks in the glass ceiling” could not break through the rising Obama-rama.
Besides, media empress Oprah Winfrey shrewdly (and self-righteously) promoted
the black candidate over female office-seeker, along with the widening youth
vote looking to vote for someone like them.
Despite her determined assurances, Clinton was not the 2008
Democratic nominee, as time and chance and a better profile within the liberal
ideology moved her aside. Now 2016 may be her break-out year, since she remains
so popular (but what about Benghazi?). Recent reports have suggested that another
candidate from her left may threaten her coronation, bank-foe US Senator
Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.
Democratic nominee, as time and chance and a better profile within the liberal
ideology moved her aside. Now 2016 may be her break-out year, since she remains
so popular (but what about Benghazi?). Recent reports have suggested that another
candidate from her left may threaten her coronation, bank-foe US Senator
Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.
There are no certainties for any claimant for their party’s
nomination in 2016. Past as prologue should prevent any candidate from
posturing as standard-bearer to become President.
nomination in 2016. Past as prologue should prevent any candidate from
posturing as standard-bearer to become President.