Election 2014 displayed
one of the most incredible switches of U.S. Senate control in recent memory.
one of the most incredible switches of U.S. Senate control in recent memory.
The Republicans did not
just take back the Upper Chamber. They wiped the floor with the Democrats and
bested some of their pettiest political tricks, including three different
Democratic candidates in Montana, plus three-way races in other states.
just take back the Upper Chamber. They wiped the floor with the Democrats and
bested some of their pettiest political tricks, including three different
Democratic candidates in Montana, plus three-way races in other states.
Nothing can top Election
1980, which produced a Republican majority with 12 US Senate wins.
1980, which produced a Republican majority with 12 US Senate wins.
Election 2014 produced
nine seats, but could have been eleven if not for the intense infighting in
Republican primaries.
nine seats, but could have been eleven if not for the intense infighting in
Republican primaries.
So, will Election 2016
turn into an epic landslide of the Democrats and help them win back the upper
chamber?
turn into an epic landslide of the Democrats and help them win back the upper
chamber?
![]("https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ae/2016_Senate_election_map.svg/2000px-2016_Senate_election_map.svg.png")
After
Election 2014, I belived that the Republicans would have no trouble holding
their majority. They have strong incumbents, many who have provide superior
constituent services to their states. U.S. Senator Pat Toomey has worked across
the aisle on select issues so that he does not alienate his base, but can reach
out to Independents and even some Democrats.
Election 2014, I belived that the Republicans would have no trouble holding
their majority. They have strong incumbents, many who have provide superior
constituent services to their states. U.S. Senator Pat Toomey has worked across
the aisle on select issues so that he does not alienate his base, but can reach
out to Independents and even some Democrats.
I knew that the battleground
was going to be wider for Democratic gains, and harder for Republican holds.
was going to be wider for Democratic gains, and harder for Republican holds.
After nearly two year of
campaigning, polling, and the unexpected, I have to revise my predictions.
campaigning, polling, and the unexpected, I have to revise my predictions.
For example, I was
certain that U.S. Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin would not have a hard time
getting re-elected. And yet poll after poll has documented a surprising yet
consistent lead for Democratic challenger Russ Feingold, the incumbent whom
Johnson knocked out in 2010. It has narrowed recently, but the NRSC has not
invested major funding for ads … yet. This setback is very disappointing.
Johnson is a vocal and effective legislator. He has fought for strong our
country’s best interests in national
security. He has focused on ending illegal immigration. Unlike other Republicans,
this Tea Party candidate has not run away from his values. Recent polling has
delivered good news, indicating a tighter race, but the numbers still look bad
for Johnson.
certain that U.S. Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin would not have a hard time
getting re-elected. And yet poll after poll has documented a surprising yet
consistent lead for Democratic challenger Russ Feingold, the incumbent whom
Johnson knocked out in 2010. It has narrowed recently, but the NRSC has not
invested major funding for ads … yet. This setback is very disappointing.
Johnson is a vocal and effective legislator. He has fought for strong our
country’s best interests in national
security. He has focused on ending illegal immigration. Unlike other Republicans,
this Tea Party candidate has not run away from his values. Recent polling has
delivered good news, indicating a tighter race, but the numbers still look bad
for Johnson.
Just South of Johnson,
fellow Republican Mark Kirk of Illinois is in a world of hurt.
fellow Republican Mark Kirk of Illinois is in a world of hurt.
He is the #1 Target on
the Senate map, even though he has raised considerable amount of money. The
state is just too blue. Kirk won in 2010, which was not just an off-year, but
witnessed a wave of voter discontent which swept Kirk into office. He was
running against one corrupt challenger, and replacing a corrupt appointment
which has opted not to even run for re-election. This year, Kirk is running
against another "decorated" wounded veteran. Despite allegations of
malfeasance and incompetence dogging Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth, she is poised
to win.
the Senate map, even though he has raised considerable amount of money. The
state is just too blue. Kirk won in 2010, which was not just an off-year, but
witnessed a wave of voter discontent which swept Kirk into office. He was
running against one corrupt challenger, and replacing a corrupt appointment
which has opted not to even run for re-election. This year, Kirk is running
against another "decorated" wounded veteran. Despite allegations of
malfeasance and incompetence dogging Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth, she is poised
to win.
Other seats which were
not supposed to be in play, but now have become competitive, including Indiana.
Evan Bayh had retired in 2010, smelling the blood in the water for Democrats. Now
he's back, and hoping for a larger Democratic turnout which will prop him back
into office. So many unhappy, unnerving retreads. Could Indiana end up with two
Democratic Senators in 2016?!
not supposed to be in play, but now have become competitive, including Indiana.
Evan Bayh had retired in 2010, smelling the blood in the water for Democrats. Now
he's back, and hoping for a larger Democratic turnout which will prop him back
into office. So many unhappy, unnerving retreads. Could Indiana end up with two
Democratic Senators in 2016?!
Now the good news.
Opportunities have
emerged for Republicans to keep the majority.
emerged for Republicans to keep the majority.
Robert Portman of Ohio
is running a smart campaign. He has raised the most money of all his fellow
colleagues running. Black activist groups have supported the senator, along
with labor unions, which means more campaign dollars.
is running a smart campaign. He has raised the most money of all his fellow
colleagues running. Black activist groups have supported the senator, along
with labor unions, which means more campaign dollars.
His Democratic
challenger, Ted Strickland, has been struggling to fundraise and to raise his
positives with Ohio voters, who don't want him back in elected office. Major
headlines from the liberal press reported that the Democratic Senate Campaign
Committee is pulling their investments out of the state. Uh Oh!
challenger, Ted Strickland, has been struggling to fundraise and to raise his
positives with Ohio voters, who don't want him back in elected office. Major
headlines from the liberal press reported that the Democratic Senate Campaign
Committee is pulling their investments out of the state. Uh Oh!
In Florida, Marco Rubio
earned enough press to remake himself into a household name in the swing-state
Sunshine State. After much backroom prodding, Rubio decided to run for
re-election, though he had decided to retire folowing his bid for President.
earned enough press to remake himself into a household name in the swing-state
Sunshine State. After much backroom prodding, Rubio decided to run for
re-election, though he had decided to retire folowing his bid for President.
Even though He lost
Florida Presidential primary by huge margins, but he blew away his primary
competition to hold onto his Senate seat. He now consistently polls at least
five points ahead of his Democratic challenger. This seat is no longer in
precarious hands. Rubio will return as a U.S. Senator, but let us hope that he
will stop pushing immigration "reform" and fight for conservative
causes with renewed gusto.
Florida Presidential primary by huge margins, but he blew away his primary
competition to hold onto his Senate seat. He now consistently polls at least
five points ahead of his Democratic challenger. This seat is no longer in
precarious hands. Rubio will return as a U.S. Senator, but let us hope that he
will stop pushing immigration "reform" and fight for conservative
causes with renewed gusto.
There is one more truly swing
state that is swinging back to Republicans: Pennsylvania.
state that is swinging back to Republicans: Pennsylvania.
Senator Pat Toomey was
riding high earlier this year, especially because of Democratic infighting that
was chipping away at their chances in for winning the seat. Toomey ran
against a weakened challenger in 2010, who had toppled turncoat incumbent RINO-Democrat
Arlen Specter. Back then, Toomey eked out a 51% victory.
riding high earlier this year, especially because of Democratic infighting that
was chipping away at their chances in for winning the seat. Toomey ran
against a weakened challenger in 2010, who had toppled turncoat incumbent RINO-Democrat
Arlen Specter. Back then, Toomey eked out a 51% victory.
Will he have a wider win
in 2016? Incredible constituent contacts, well-informed efforts and
newsletters, plus a unique mixture of confirmed conservatism with purple
pragmatism may see him through–or not, as his challenger Katie McGinty shows
her besting incumbent Toomey, within the margin of error.
in 2016? Incredible constituent contacts, well-informed efforts and
newsletters, plus a unique mixture of confirmed conservatism with purple
pragmatism may see him through–or not, as his challenger Katie McGinty shows
her besting incumbent Toomey, within the margin of error.
Iowa’s Chuck Grassley is
doing very well, standing firm against Obama’s Supreme Court nominee while
fighting hard against illegal immigration. His stock has improved in connection
with Donald Trump, too. Despite quivering pollsters and salivating liberal
media pundits, Missouri’s Roy Blunt, an accomplished politician with a long
resume, will show the Democrats he can carry the “Show Me State”. New Hampshire’s
Kelly Ayotte has a harder fight on her hands. Patent reform notwithstanding,
her support for immigration “reform” could dampen voters’ spirits. If Trump’s
standing improves, then Ayotte’s bedrock of support will strengthen her chances
in the Granite State.
doing very well, standing firm against Obama’s Supreme Court nominee while
fighting hard against illegal immigration. His stock has improved in connection
with Donald Trump, too. Despite quivering pollsters and salivating liberal
media pundits, Missouri’s Roy Blunt, an accomplished politician with a long
resume, will show the Democrats he can carry the “Show Me State”. New Hampshire’s
Kelly Ayotte has a harder fight on her hands. Patent reform notwithstanding,
her support for immigration “reform” could dampen voters’ spirits. If Trump’s
standing improves, then Ayotte’s bedrock of support will strengthen her chances
in the Granite State.
Republicans could pick
up a seat from the Democrats, too. Now that the humiliated and greatly weakened
Democratic leader “Dirty” Harry Reid no longer feels so lucky, Republican
Congressman Joe Heck looks primed to win.
up a seat from the Democrats, too. Now that the humiliated and greatly weakened
Democratic leader “Dirty” Harry Reid no longer feels so lucky, Republican
Congressman Joe Heck looks primed to win.
As for Colorado, Darryl
Glen shocked triumphed in a crowded primary. With little support in the general,
he holds little chance of flipping the seat from Michael Bennett, although he
certainly deserves to lose.
Glen shocked triumphed in a crowded primary. With little support in the general,
he holds little chance of flipping the seat from Michael Bennett, although he
certainly deserves to lose.
The stats are looking
better for Senate Republicans.
better for Senate Republicans.
Election 2016 Prediction:
Republicans hold the US Senate 52-48.
UPDATE:
Indiana
What is going on in Indiana?
Evan Bayh jumps out of retirement, and everyone forgets that he voted for Obamacare?
How about that vote for Dodd-Frank? What about those votes for the stimulus nationwide bribe?
What is the matter with some of the voters in that state?
I just can't wrap my head around what is going on in Indiana.
Republican Governors worked hard to bring Right-To-Work, and with that more jobs, more employment, a growing economy has taken over in that state.
What is going on there? Have Republicans gotten lazy? Have they rested on their laurels for too long?
This is outrageous. Name ID alone should not be able to allow any candidate to coast into office.
Get it together, Indiana!
Wisconsin
This is the saddest outcome yet.
Ron Johnson is a real champion. He cares about working people. He cares about Wisconsin. Governor Scott Walker and he advanced to their elected offices at the same time. Walker weathered a recall and a tough re-election in 2014. Why can't the Wisconsin GOP team get everything together to help Ron Johnson?
Something is very wrong with the current electorate, or the polling.
Perhaps we are seeing another set of polling errors about this contest.
Ron Johnson belongs in the U.S. Senate! He cares about national security. He fights against illegal immigration. He is pro-life!
Republicans hold the US Senate 52-48.
UPDATE:
Indiana
What is going on in Indiana?
Evan Bayh jumps out of retirement, and everyone forgets that he voted for Obamacare?
How about that vote for Dodd-Frank? What about those votes for the stimulus nationwide bribe?
What is the matter with some of the voters in that state?
I just can't wrap my head around what is going on in Indiana.
Republican Governors worked hard to bring Right-To-Work, and with that more jobs, more employment, a growing economy has taken over in that state.
What is going on there? Have Republicans gotten lazy? Have they rested on their laurels for too long?
This is outrageous. Name ID alone should not be able to allow any candidate to coast into office.
Get it together, Indiana!
Wisconsin
This is the saddest outcome yet.
Ron Johnson is a real champion. He cares about working people. He cares about Wisconsin. Governor Scott Walker and he advanced to their elected offices at the same time. Walker weathered a recall and a tough re-election in 2014. Why can't the Wisconsin GOP team get everything together to help Ron Johnson?
Something is very wrong with the current electorate, or the polling.
Perhaps we are seeing another set of polling errors about this contest.
Ron Johnson belongs in the U.S. Senate! He cares about national security. He fights against illegal immigration. He is pro-life!
Fight for Ron Johnson!
New Hampshire
The Granite State is crumbling for Republicans.
In 2010, Republicans held both House seats.
Then they lost both seats in 2012.
Then 2014, and Frank Guinta won NH-2. Then came the political fundraising violations plus the calls for his resignation. He will not step down, and I guess the Republican will get kicked out, again.
These developments are not helping the country. George W. Bush won New Hampshire in 2000. We cannot afford to lose that state. We want to live free and not die.
Still, some New Hampshire Republicans are not exactly making it any easier. Ayotte voted for that Gang of Eight immigration "reform" bill. That was bad.
Still, it would be sad to see the U.S. Senate fall into Democratic hands. If Trump wins, though, and those four seats flip (including Illinois), then Mike Pence as Senate President keeps the chamber in Republican control.