!["File:Julia]("http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a2/Julia_Brownley_2011.jpg") |
| Julia Brownley (Source, Michael Headington) |
Assemblywoman Julia Brownley was lucky in 2012.
After the Citizens Redistricting Commission, Republican incumbent Congressman Elton Gallegly decided that another fight in a different district was not worth the effort, so he retired and opened up an opportunity for Brownley.
![]("http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ac/Elton_gallegly.jpg") |
| Elton Gallegly |
![]("http://www.mpimaps.com/wp-content/gallery/congress/26.png")
Too bad. Despite the six point Democratic advantage, it looks as though a Republican can capitalize on Independent votes and win the district. The statewide Republican candidates won the majority vote, even if by a slight margin. Plus Gallegly's name recognition, he would have had a fight, but one likely more slanted toward him.
Nonetheless, another Republican, state Assemblyman Tony Strickland stood up to Brownley. She won 44% of the vote in the 2012 primary, yet lost by 5 points in November, mostly because of a diminished turn out (thanks in greater part to Mitt Romney).
In 2014, a different crop of candidates ran against the incumbent, and the results suggest that Brownley will be going down-ley.
The June 3rd primary results alone should grant her pause:
| Candidate | Votes | Percent | |
|---|---|---|---|
| * | Julia Brownley (Party Preference: DEM) |
38,091 |
45.5%
|
| Rafael Alberto Dagnesses (Party Preference: REP) |
6,350 |
7.6%
|
|
| Jeff Gorell (Party Preference: REP) |
37,383 |
44.6%
|
|
| Douglas William Kmiec (Party Preference: NPP) |
1,926 |
2.3%
|
Gorell has represented the 44th Assembly district long enough to have good name ID, and in this year's primary, Brownley won by only nine-tenths of a percent compared to Gorell.
Wow! With the seven percent earned by Rafael Dagnasses, and some of the votes peeled away from former Republican-turned-Independent Douglas Kmiec, the registration alone tilts in Gorell's favor.
Politcal pundits have taken CD-26 "lean Democrat" to "toss-up".
!["jeff-gorell-military-003"]("http://www.jeffgorell.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/jeff-gorell-military-0031.png") |
| Jeff Gorrell |
Is Brownley going Down-ley this year?
Gorell cannot coast on registration alone. Tea Party candidates alienated voters in other "sure wins" in 2012, and as voters witnesses that same year, voter apathy and disappearance can hurt a candidate's cause.
With the current ground game that got him the Assembly seat, plus his grow list of endorsements, along with an off-year electoral turnout, plus the stronger GOP GOTV trends, Gorell has more than a change of taking down Brownley and switching another Congressional district back into the GOP column in 2014.