By most calculations, Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney should be the presumptive GOP nominee. Yet three quarters of eligible GOP voters, myself, have not warmed up to this New England Moderate. Yet following three primary elections, the GOP voters have divided their loyalty among three candidates, unprecedented in modern American Politics.
Residents in the South Bay, along with other GOP voters in the state of California, may have the unprecedented opportunity of influencing the nomination of the future GOP standard bearer come June 2012. In May last year, voters upset what many had predicted would have been a standard jungle-primary tussle between two prominent Democratic stalwarts for the 36th Congressional seat vacated by Jane Harman. Small businessman Craig Huey upset the calculations of the prognosticators as the number two vote-getter. Following the July 2011 runoff, Huey garnered a respectable 45% in a district where the Democratic party enjoyed an 18 advantage in registered voters.
Recognizing the socially moderate yet fiscally conservative presence of the Beach Cities, the winnig Democrat for the CA-36th has voted against the raising of the debt ceiling, has refused to support miliary expenditures for Afghanistan, and has trumpted her support for small businesses, a welcome GOP trend in a confirmed Democrat. Voting more in line with the GOP, she has displayed the salience of Tea Party values all while repudiating the Tea Party message of fiscal restraint and constitutional rule.
The uneasy mix of moderation and conservatism in the Beach cities that sent former State Assemblyman Steve Kuykendall to Washington in 1998 may induce GOP voters to fuse their support for a GOP presidential candidate with a proper respect for faith, family, and freedom.
Romney is the "Establishment" Republican, one who has been pandering to politicians and power bases to make the case for his election. He has been the most consistently polled of GOP candidates, with money and endorsements from major players in the Republican party, y his support has hovered between a stagnant 20%-25%. The other 75%of Core Conservatives want a more consistent candidate, one who can make the compelling case for his candidacy against Barack Obama.
This current split between "establishment" Republicans and Core Conservatives, (divided between the "faith and family" and the finances and freedom" retinue), may find the representative mix in the South Bay to propel the best candidate for the national conference for the summer convention in Tampa.
Former House Majority and Tea Party stalwart Leader Dick Armey charged that the GOP went Big — Big Government, Big entitlements, Big encroachments into the private and local lives of citizens and counties: issues that resonate with all California voters. Congressman Ron Paul is the most vocal and vibrant for limited government. Newt Gingrich is visible and visceral, a persuasive speaker, an irascible fighter, and determined to best Obama. Neither one of these candidates figure prominently among the "faith and family" crowd: Paul, because his libertarian beliefs; Gingrich, whose actions have not lined up with his professed beliefs. Still, unlike, Congressman Paul, Gingrich corrals faith, family and freedom, so to speak, joining the establishment element of electability and voter viability.
Senator Rick Santorum has championed the cause of faith and family, stressing his consistent record of upholding the sanctity of marriage and the well-being of faith and religiosity in this country. A Big Government supporter, his campaign will probable never gain traction in a state or a country seeking to fix this nation's financial follies.
Whoever wins the GOP Primary, the GOP voters in California will focus on faith and family, financial freedom, or settle for a candidate who stresses both in word but whose record demonstrates faulty adherence at best.