Florida is shaping up into another win for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich scored a significant victory in the South Carolina Primary, pulling ahead of establishment front-runner Mitt Romney by double-digits.
In Florida, Gingrich is taking on a fired-up Romney, one who recognizes the threat of the Core Conservative Corps resisting his ascendancy to the GOP nomination. No matter what the outcome on January 31, Gingrich has pledged to stay in the race until the Summer convention.
Congressman Ron Paul is quietly gaining strength. He has already invested forced and finances in order key battleground states. He is primed and ready for the Nevada Caucuses in February, where retail politicking may better advance his cause than a blanket media blitz.
Former Senator Rick Santorum has packed up and left for the rest of the campaign. He has no money, and he has demonstrated a weak showing following his questionable surge of victory in Iowa. He is looking less and less like a viable candidate.
If this contest drifts into a fight among three candidates, California may end up playing a large role in determining who the next GOP Presidential nominee will be.
The socially moderate, fiscally conservative South Bay may be just the push that propels Ron Paul from quiet but gaining outsider into a prime contender for the nomination. Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is the establishment candidate, a wealthy man who got wealthier while companies downsized or declared bankruptcy. Despite the moderate degree of support for ObamaCare, Romney's role in Massachusetts may not appeal to Southern California voters.
More than Romney or Gingrich, both of whom have also profited from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Congressman Ron Paul has articulated the frustrations of the Occupy Movement, coupled with the growing strain and disillusionment of students with degrees and debt but no jobs. Young people are flocking to the integrity and ingenuity of the Texas Congressman, where many youth now are suffering from the withdrawal and discouragement of a youthful president whose policies have done everything to stagnate job growth, stall the economy, and ruin the line of credit for students who want to earn a higher education and a higher wage.
Rick Santorum's traditional brand of social conservatism may not sell very well in the Golden State, where GOP stalwarts have faced the reality that a competitive statewide party must embrace moderation on social issues in order to compete.
If the GOP stands a chance of competing in California, a focus on fiscal issues without heady emphasis on social problems is their best bet. If Ron Paul attracts enough young voters, including the growing number of disillusioned college students weighed down by student loan debt, he may score an upset victory, or at least take a strong second place finish.