Miller Effect Redux in the 31st?

Lesli Gooch

Leslie Gooch, the former aide the hand-picked successor to retiring Representative Gary Miller, did not quite make into the Top Two jungle primary on June 3rd, 2014.

Even though her website listed her as the party favorite, including her win in the Redlands Tea Party straw poll, she didn't win.

Another loss for the California GOP political establishment?

Not necessarily. How much more did she need to beat Redlands Mayor Peter Aguilar for the number two spot? 209 votes.

The slim margin has sparked a recount from her campaign.

The Secretary of State has certified the results, a Tea Party member in the region wants a recount. As long as the Gooch campaign pays the day-by-day costs, the state can recount the votes.

209 votes is a slim margin, and if Gooch's efforts turn up enough votes and she gets into the Top Two, her move will spell more one more defeat for the Redlands-Inland Empire Democratic Party, which has squandered millions with infighting only to clobber themselves and advance GOP opportunities in a "majority Democratic" district.

Congressman Gary Miller was fortunate enough in 2012, playing off multiplied Democratic ambitions to face off against another Republican and win.

California Republican Party leaders could learn from the prior and current outcomes and start investing in off-shoot liberal candidates, too, who can draw away Democratic support and advance Republican chances in otherwise impossible districts.

At any rate, another Miller Effect might be in the works in the 31st, where the Democratic vote was so thinly divided, that two Republicans make into the Top Two once again.

Contacts to the Gooch campaign have not yet been returned.

Paul Chabot, the Top vote getter in the primary, is undeterred, whatever the results.

We won by 5,000 votes, and we are getting out the vote now.

The wide margin in the latest tally all but assures that Chabot will stay in the general election, whether Aguilar prevails or Gooch wins following the recount.

Either way, the election battle is looking better for Republicans in the otherwise strongly Democratic district. Aguilar tweeted on this website that the official tally puts him in the Top Two, but Tea Party efforts and a unlikely recount reversal may shut out Democrats once again in the 31st Congressional District.

Regardless of whether Aguilar flies or falls following the recount, Chabot remains the better for this controversy, since he will devote his time and energy to get out the vote, while his current Democratic challenger wonders whether his efforts will net him the win in November. If Gooch gets into the Top Two, she will have at least a time and fundraising disadvantage.