Rauner v. Kashkari (and Why Rauner Won)

Of all the gubernatorial contests in 2014, only one incumbent Democrat was unseated:
Pat Quinn of Illinois, while another incumbent Democrat won big: Jerry Brown of
California.

Bruce Rauner (R-Illinois)

Defined by unhinged, unprecedented levels of debt, public union dominance,
and special interest pandering, Illinois and California represent everything
that is wrong with progressive policy as governing ideology. As two states with
large populations and expensive media markets, they featured a locked-up slate of
Democratic gains statewide. At the local level, the two state legislatures’ numbers
did not change that much, certainly in Illinois, although in California
Republicans succeeded at ending the tax-and-spend overbearing of the Democratic
supermajority in Sacramento.

Focusing on the states’ gubernatorial contests, one finds two distinct
outcomes. In liberal Illinois, Pat Quinn lost his reelection bid, while California's
Jerry Brown cruised to victory. Why the different outcomes? Why did Bruce
Rauner succeed in the Land of Lincoln, while Kashkari failed in Reagan Country?

First, let us consider the political environment.

California Governor Jerry Brown was very popular, with  a well-known
political family name behind him. Despite the smoke and mirrors of balanced
budgets, pension reforms, and fiscal discipline, Brown is sitting atop a house
of cards, much like Illinois, where environmental alarmists and progressive
extremists have squeezed the middle class, complete with failing schools,
crumbling infrastructure, and exiting populations. Still, Brown with a fawning
media maintained relatively high approval ratings.

In contrast, Illinois' Pat Quinn took over from a convicted felon Democrat,
Rod Blagojevich, who had replaced a corrupt Republican governor. After four
years of fleeing tax base, failing schools, and skyrocketing crime rates in
urban cities, plus unimaginable pension crises, local leaders, both Republican
and Democrat, lined up behind Quinn's challenger. The incumbent was not popular
to begin with, received no response from local crowds during little league
games.

Now, let's consider the candidates.

Neel Kashkari (R-California)

Neel Kashkari never polled above twenty percent during the primary season.
"None of the Above" had more name recognition than the Bush
Administration TARP administrator. His primary opponent, Tim Donnelly, aroused
suspicion, yet amassed a considerable conservative following. Their bitter
primary induced national Republicans, as well as famous standard-bearers (since
no Republican holds statewide office in California) to endorse Kashkari. California
Republicans ended up beating each other, while both sides of the aisle and the
media class all but conceded that Brown would win a fourth term.

In Illinois, four Republicans sought their party's nomination, but most of
the primary fighting took place between union special interests and private
business owner Bruce Rauner. Republicans were not fighting each other, as much
as Democrats and their financial supporters were fighting against the most
viable, thus most dangerous Republican candidate. In Illinois, the Republican
candidates understood the threat posed by one force: the public sector unions.
In California, Republicans had not defined a clear problem, nor clean vision
for the state.

Kashkari alienated the Republican base with his strong stance on socially
liberal issues, like gay marriage and abortion. He even marched in a San Diego
gay pride parade, which offended many conservatives. He also failed to reach
out and gain support from Democrats, most of whom either really believed that
Brown was doing a good job, or were too afraid of the Dem machine backlash.
Rauner stood with a large dais of Democratic supporters on the evening when he
won the Republican nomination, which included influential leaders in the
Chicago area.

Kashkari marching in a San Deigo LGBT parade

Kashkari presented two goals: “Jobs. Education. That's it.” Rauner had a
four-point plan, which included term limits. There was something specific about
Rauner's platform and campaign. Ignoring Democratic hegemony and capitalizing
on Quinn's deep unpopularity, Rauner reached out to all Republicans, including
the conservatives. Even though they did not agree on certain issues, he made it
very clear that he respected the different opinions of other Republicans, having
no intention of shaming or shunning them.

Kashkari wanted to rebrand the entire party, or try to move it left-ward
with his campaign. His divisive campaign relied on defaming conservative
candidate Tim Donnelly. Furthermore, Kashkari's record and rhetoric were an
unconvincing amalgam to potential supporters, many of whom could not determine,
or at least understand why Kashkari was running as a Republican in the first
place.

Bruce Rauner

Rauner was clear and open about many of his views, and refused to hide or
shun discussion on controversies. A private businessman with a public record he
could stand on, Rauner connected with all kinds of voters, from both parties,
from diverse demographics, focusing on four issues, and one source of conflict.
Rauner ran expecting to win, and he won.

What lessons can future Republican candidates learn from Rauner’s victory as
well as Kashkari’s defeat?

1. Reach out to all members of one’s party, whether more liberal or
conservative. Define the common interests and direct action and resources to
consensus-based solutions. Avoid alienating one’s base.

2. Identify clear principles/reforms/mandates to pursue, and engage the
voting public, regardless of political or personal background.

3. Define the opposition, and why they must be removed, as opposed to
demeaning one’s primary opponents and thus risk wasting time and opportunities
in the general election.